What Our Selection Rate Reveals About the New H-1B Lottery

Nicole Gunara leads Manifest Law’s corporate immigration practice, and has deep experience working with clients throughout the entire H-1B process.

Manifest Law’s FY2027 H-1B lottery selection results are in. Together with my colleague Ana Gabriela Urizar, who has filed thousands of H-1Bs across multiple lottery seasons, I dug into our firm’s data to understand what’s actually driving this year’s selection rate trends.

Manifest Law’s H-1B selection rate by wage level

H-1B selection rates represent the share of registrations that get picked out of the total pool. Under the new wage‑weighted system, higher wage levels get more “entries” in that pool, so they take up a larger share of the slots even though the total number of visas stays the same.

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) estimated for the FY2027 lottery, the selection odds for Level I registrations would sit at 15.3%. Manifest’s clients came in at 24.5%. Levels II and III percentages outperformed DHS’s projections even more dramatically: 50.0% vs. 30.6% for Level II, and 69.2% vs. 45.9% for Level III.

Data from: Manifest Law H-1B selection rates for FY 2027 and publicly available USCIS data on past H-1B lottery selection results. 

A decline in lottery registrations may have improved the odds

USCIS hasn’t released official lottery registration numbers yet, but we do know that registration has been declining over the past few years as the lottery has become increasingly competitive. In our own practice, we’ve seen some employers sit out the lottery entirely or file for fewer roles after the FY 2024 fraud crackdown and new $100,000 fee for consular-processed petitions. 

Unofficial estimates from immigration attorneys and industry surveys predicted that FY2027 registrations would fall to 160,000-250,000, driven by that new fee and higher program scrutiny. If those estimates are close, this would represent roughly a 53-79% drop from the FY2024 peak in just three years. This would naturally push selection rates higher than models that assumed a larger pool.

The weighted system worked as intended, but perhaps more  aggressively than expected

For Manifest Law’s registrants, Level III and Level IV registrations were selected at rates roughly 2.5-2.8 times higher than Level I. This is directionally consistent with DHS’s multiplier framework (where Level III gets 3 entries and Level IV gets 4), but with even wider gaps in practice.

One notable finding is that Manifest’s Level III rate (69.2%) actually exceeded our Level IV rate (65.2%). However, this may be a normal statistical variance based on a smaller relative sample size. We had about half as many Level IV registrations vs. Level Is. 

Manifest’s Level IV results are also within a reasonable range of DHS projected estimates of 61.2%. As more firm-level data becomes available across the industry, the expected gradient (Level IV outperforming Level III) could hold in larger datasets.

Variables that might reshape the lottery in FY 2028

This year’s lottery is over, and the selection rates we’re seeing in our own data are encouraging. But the H‑1B program is still under scrutiny, and both employers and future beneficiaries should be prepared for additional reforms ahead of the FY 2028 lottery.

The fate of the $100,000 H-1B fee may influence registration volume

Unless it gets renewed by another executive action by President Trump, the $100,000 fee for many H‑1B cases filed from outside the United States expires on September 21, 2026. If that fee goes away, more employers may decide the H‑1B is “worth it” again, leading to an increase in lottery registrations. More names in the hat would push selection rates down for everyone.

At least three federal court challenges are also pending, adding uncertainty to this policy’s future. If the fee is renewed or upheld, registration volume may stay closer to current levels or keep falling, which would keep selection odds relatively higher across wage levels.

Proposed prevailing wage increases could reduce registrations

On March 27, 2026, the Department of Labor published a Federal Register notice proposing significant increases to prevailing wage floors across all four wage tiers.

If the government raises the minimum salaries employers have to pay H‑1B workers, especially at Level I, that makes each H‑1B hire more expensive. Some companies will decide they can’t justify those costs and either file for fewer roles or skip the lottery altogether. Fewer registrations in the lottery means better odds for the people who are still in the pool, but it also means fewer early‑career H‑1B jobs overall.

According to Labor Department data, 63% of certified LCAs in Fiscal Year 2024 were assigned to Level I or Level II wages. If these changes take effect, a substantial share of H-1B employers will need to reassess their compensation strategies.

Registration volume may have the biggest impact on selection odds

As we discussed earlier, H‑1B registrations have been declining for several years. Whether that trend continues, stabilizes, or reverses will likely determine whether FY 2027’s high selection rates persist

If the $100K fee disappears and registration volume rebounds toward the 300,000-400,000 range, DHS’s original projections (Level I at ~15%, Level IV at ~61%) become more accurate. Combined with higher prevailing wage floors, employers sponsoring entry-level workers might face a double squeeze: higher salary requirements and lower selection probability.

Looking ahead: building a resilient global talent strategy

The H-1B system is actively rewarding different hiring behaviors than it did two years ago, and the employers who recognize that shift now will have a structural advantage in the years ahead.

As we reflect on this year’s lottery selection results, my colleague Ana Gabriela Urizar said it best: “The rules of the H-1B game are changing, and so must your strategy. Employers and applicants who prioritize higher wage levels and stronger positioning will have a meaningful advantage. This is no longer just about entering the lottery, it’s about entering it strategically.”

Here’s what that means in practice:

• Registering roles above Level I are still worth it. Our data suggests selection rates double at Level II compared to Level I, meaning higher-wage positions aren’t just a good compensation strategy. They translate directly to better lottery odds.
• The $100,000 fee is the biggest wildcard heading into FY2028. If it expires in September 2026, registration volume may rebound and this year’s favorable odds may not hold. That’s not a reason to wait; it’s a reason to plan now. Our team of former USCIS officers brings the kind of regulatory insight that turns policy uncertainty into a planning advantage.
• Alternative visas aren’t a fallback anymore; they’re a strategy. For example, the O-1 visa lets highly qualified employees skip the lottery and prevailing wage requirements altogether. Employers who build it into their talent strategy today won’t be scrambling when lottery odds shift.

The filing window for FY2027 H-1B cap-subject petitions opened April 1, 2026. Whether you were selected or not, the strategic decisions you make now will shape your talent pipeline for years to come. 

Individuals and HR teams navigating H-1B lottery results, whether selected or not, can request a consultation with Manifest Law today. Our team, including former USCIS officers, will help you build a strategy for what comes next

The analysis in this article reflects our firm’s H-1B lottery selection data as of April 2, 2026 and is intended for informational purposes only, not legal advice.