Report
Manifest’s 2026 EB-1A & NIW Trends and Outlook Report
Approval rates are shifting. Total approvals are rising. Here’s what the data shows and how petition strategy must evolve.
key findings
More people are applying for EB-1A and EB-2 NIW than ever, making the competition for a Green Card tougher.
While overall approval rates have dropped, the government is approving more EB-1A cases than ever before.
If your EB-1A or EB-2 NIW case is strong enough to file today, adjudication trends give no compelling reason to wait.
In a competitive environment, waiting doesn’t improve your odds; it just gives the bar more time to rise.
Summary
The Manifest EB-1A and EB-2 NIW Trends and Outlook Report analyzes historical USCIS data (up to Quarter 3 of Fiscal Year 2025) alongside third-party case outcome data from Lawfully from as recently as January 2026.
Since 2022, filing volumes for both EB-1A and EB-2 NIW have surged. While rising demand has come with lower approval rates, the number of EB-1As being approved is actually increasing.
Even in a more competitive environment, the data suggests that well-structured cases are succeeding at higher rates than many assume.
In this report, our in-house attorneys, who prepare EB-1A and EB-2 NIW petitions every day, outline how to build a strong case in today’s climate.
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Other Services
+1 212 246 6212
(please text us)
press@manifestlaw.com
(For press inquiries and official
media requests)
help@manifestlaw.com
(for prospective clients and general inquiries)
support@manifestlaw.com
(For existing clients with case, billing, and portal inquiries)
compliance@manifestlaw.com
(for any complaints or concerns)
Manifest Law
2550 W. Union Hills Dr
Suite 350
Phoenix AZ 85027
Manifest Tech
902 Broadway
8th Floor
New York NY 10010
Attorney Advertising: This website is intended for general informational purposes only. It does not constitute legal advice and is no substitute for consulting a licensed attorney. Only an attorney can provide you with legal advice, and only after considering your specific facts and circumstances. You should not act on any information on this website without first seeking the advice of an attorney. Manifest Law is an association of lawyers and legal entities that have agreed to do business under a common name, which includes Manifest Legal Services LLC, Manifest Legal Solutions LLC and Manifest Law PLLC. Manifest Legal Services LLC is an Arizona ABS regulated by the Supreme Court of Arizona. The use of the name “Manifest Law” does not imply that all lawyers or legal entities within the Manifest Law family are part of a single partnership or that they are responsible for the acts or omissions of each other. Any specific attorney-client engagement, the scope of any such attorney-client relationship, and the legal responsibility for any such engagement will be set forth in the retainer agreement entered into between the client and the relevant Manifest Law attorney(s). All legal services are conducted by licensed immigration professionals. This website is regulated by the Arizona Rules of Professional Conduct.
2026 Copyright held by Manifest Legal Tech, Inc.
Other Services
+1 212 246 6212
(please text us)
press@manifestlaw.com
(For press inquiries and official
media requests)
help@manifestlaw.com
(For potential clients with consultation and visa inquiries)
support@manifestlaw.com
(For existing clients with case, billing, and portal inquiries)
compliance@manifestlaw.com
(for any complaints or concerns)
Tech Office
902 Broadway
8th Floor
New York NY 10010
Law Firm
2550 W. Union Hills Dr
Suite 350
Phoenix AZ 85027
Attorney Advertising: This website is intended for general informational purposes only. It does not constitute legal advice and is no substitute for consulting a licensed attorney. Only an attorney can provide you with legal advice, and only after considering your specific facts and circumstances. You should not act on any information on this website without first seeking the advice of an attorney. Manifest Law is an association of lawyers and legal entities that have agreed to do business under a common name, which includes Manifest Legal Services LLC, Manifest Legal Solutions LLC and Manifest Law PLLC. Manifest Legal Services LLC is an Arizona ABS regulated by the Supreme Court of Arizona. The use of the name “Manifest Law” does not imply that all lawyers or legal entities within the Manifest Law family are part of a single partnership or that they are responsible for the acts or omissions of each other. Any specific attorney-client engagement, the scope of any such attorney-client relationship, and the legal responsibility for any such engagement will be set forth in the retainer agreement entered into between the client and the relevant Manifest Law attorney(s). All legal services are conducted by licensed immigration professionals. This website is regulated by the Arizona Rules of Professional Conduct.
2026 Copyright held by Manifest Legal Tech, Inc.
+1 212 246 6212
(please text us)
press@manifestlaw.com
(For press inquiries and official
media requests)
help@manifestlaw.com
(For potential clients with consultation and visa inquiries)
support@manifestlaw.com
(For existing clients with case, billing, and portal inquiries)
compliance@manifestlaw.com
(for any complaints or concerns)
Tech Office
902 Broadway
8th Floor
New York NY 10010
Law Firm
2550 W. Union Hills Dr
Suite 350
Phoenix AZ 85027
Attorney Advertising: This website is intended for general informational purposes only. It does not constitute legal advice and is no substitute for consulting a licensed attorney. Only an attorney can provide you with legal advice, and only after considering your specific facts and circumstances. You should not act on any information on this website without first seeking the advice of an attorney. Manifest Law is an association of lawyers and legal entities that have agreed to do business under a common name, which includes Manifest Legal Services LLC, Manifest Legal Solutions LLC and Manifest Law PLLC. Manifest Legal Services LLC is an Arizona ABS regulated by the Supreme Court of Arizona. The use of the name “Manifest Law” does not imply that all lawyers or legal entities within the Manifest Law family are part of a single partnership or that they are responsible for the acts or omissions of each other. Any specific attorney-client engagement, the scope of any such attorney-client relationship, and the legal responsibility for any such engagement will be set forth in the retainer agreement entered into between the client and the relevant Manifest Law attorney(s). All legal services are conducted by licensed immigration professionals. This website is regulated by the Arizona Rules of Professional Conduct.
2026 Copyright held by Manifest Legal Tech, Inc.
+1 212 246 6212
(please text us)
press@manifestlaw.com
(For press inquiries and official
media requests)
help@manifestlaw.com
(For potential clients with consultation and visa inquiries)
support@manifestlaw.com
(For existing clients with case, billing, and portal inquiries)
compliance@manifestlaw.com
(for any complaints or concerns)
Tech Office
902 Broadway
8th Floor
New York NY 10010
Law Firm
2550 W. Union Hills Dr
Suite 350
Phoenix AZ 85027
Attorney Advertising: This website is intended for general informational purposes only. It does not constitute legal advice and is no substitute for consulting a licensed attorney. Only an attorney can provide you with legal advice, and only after considering your specific facts and circumstances. You should not act on any information on this website without first seeking the advice of an attorney. Manifest Law is an association of lawyers and legal entities that have agreed to do business under a common name, which includes Manifest Legal Services LLC, Manifest Legal Solutions LLC and Manifest Law PLLC. Manifest Legal Services LLC is an Arizona ABS regulated by the Supreme Court of Arizona. The use of the name “Manifest Law” does not imply that all lawyers or legal entities within the Manifest Law family are part of a single partnership or that they are responsible for the acts or omissions of each other. Any specific attorney-client engagement, the scope of any such attorney-client relationship, and the legal responsibility for any such engagement will be set forth in the retainer agreement entered into between the client and the relevant Manifest Law attorney(s). All legal services are conducted by licensed immigration professionals. This website is regulated by the Arizona Rules of Professional Conduct.
2026 Copyright held by Manifest Legal Tech, Inc.