The Legal Brief: How Accurate are USCIS Processing Times?

Today’s memo is brought to you by Ana Gabriela Urizar, a Manifest immigration lawyer with over a decade of experience and more than 15,000 cases filed.

Each month, USCIS releases the latest processing times for the applications and petitions it handles. Many people use these figures as a useful filing strategy tool, as they offer a glimpse into how long their case may take to adjudicate. But what I often see is that these numbers can provoke uncertainty, especially for those navigating tight deadlines around their underlying status or career.

As an attorney, my clients often raise questions about how processing times affect their case. Understandably, they see these official government statistics and, in turn, may believe they don’t have the ability to wait months for their case to reach a decision. 

But taking these numbers at face value doesn’t tell the entire story. Here’s what the latest USCIS data does (and doesn’t) say about how long your O-1, EB-1A, or EB-2 NIW case may take on average.

Are USCIS adjudication periods increasing for O-1, EB-1A, and EB-2 NIW?

Most people don’t notice shifts in processing times because USCIS doesn’t post a month-by-month comparison of its data. But once you start tracking how the numbers change, you start to see some interesting narratives.

For instance, the average time the federal agency took to complete 80% of O-1 cases rose by 40% between December 2025 and March 2026. That might not seem like much, but the difference between 7.5 months and 10.5 months for an extraordinary ability worker could mean:

• Their underlying status expires before they receive a visa approval, or
• They are unable to enter the U.S. prior to their work start date.

The EB-1A and EB-2 NIW categories tell a similar story. From December 2025 to March 2026, the former experienced a 22.2% increase in adjudication length, from 18 to 22 months. Meanwhile, EB-2 NIW wait times went up from 19.5 to 22.5 months.

On paper, USCIS processing times have moved forward over the past four months. However, that doesn’t mean you need to assume your case will take longer to review.

Why? It doesn’t account how USCIS actually calculates its data.

What the USCIS data actually represents

USCIS calculates its processing times by taking how long it took to process 80% of the cases it completed within the past six months. More specifically, the federal agency defines completion as the time a case takes from receipt to an initial decision. 

This may seem straightforward at first. But in practice, the data USCIS publishes accounts cases that:

• Got delayed by a requests for evidence (RFEs),
• Rescheduled interview appointments for a later date, or
• Needed additional screening such as biometrics.

We can’t say with certainty that USCIS processing times are skewed by outlier cases that take several more months to process. However, other government data can point us in that direction. 

Take the historic USCIS processing times, which use the median length of time. While the dataset isn’t as granular, we can see the numbers here tell an entirely different story.

But ranges also come with their own problems. Without knowing the interquartile range, we can’t predict how spread out the majority of these cases take with certainty. Therefore, we must interpret both datasets together. 

How we can interpret USCIS processing times instead

From my perspective as an immigration attorney, the most likely culprit that explains the gap between the average and median adjudication times may be the inclusion of cases that inevitably get pushed back months by an RFE. 

Responding to an immigration officer alone takes several weeks, as it often means gathering new evidence and presenting it in a compelling manner. Add the amount of time it takes for them to then revisit a case, and you start to see a multi-month delay that inevitably skews the monthly averages USCIS reports.

Several other factors, such as case backlogs and discretionary security screening, are often outside of a foreign national’s control. However, we do have the power to better inform our filing strategy with these insights. 

Actionable steps for O-1, EB-1A, and EB-2 NIW applicants

Processing times are estimates, not promises. While USCIS data can’t predict how long your individual case may take, you can use it to:

• Decide when you file for a visa or Green Card: Having some idea on when your case may get completed can help you mitigate any lapses in underlying status.
• Explore whether you should opt for premium processing: If you can’t afford the wait, you may be able to pay for an expedited case decision.
• Plan travel and work start dates: Knowing when you should expect a decision can help you talk to your employer about when you’ll be likely to start a new job, relocate, or even exit the country for the holidays.

My biggest suggestion from all this? Take your time to go over the strength of your O-1, EB-1A, or EB-2 NIW cases. While the data doesn’t offer us a definite answer, we know that small errors or weak evidence can add months to your case timeline. And that, we can mitigate with thorough case preparation and evidence gathering. 

Best,