EB-2 NIW Denials Now Outpace EB-1A: Recent USCIS Trends

In a surprising reversal of historical trends, EB-2 National Interest Waiver (NIW) petitions are now facing a higher denial rate than EB-1A (Extraordinary Ability) petitions, according to newly released data from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) for the first quarter of Fiscal Year 2025.

For years, immigration professionals and applicants viewed the EB-2 NIW category as a relatively accessible pathway to a Green Card, especially for professionals with strong public interest cases but less traditional forms of acclaim. However, recent data shows a significant and possibly enduring shift in the agency’s adjudication patterns.

Key finding: EB-2 NIW denials now exceed EB-1A

The first quarter data paints a clear picture of USCIS’s increasingly rigorous approach to EB-2 NIW petitions.

Note: You may notice that USCIS received more petitions than it approved or denied. This troubling trend indicates that USCIS is struggling to adjudicate cases fast enough. Average processing times for petitions are thus likely to keep increasing.

Historical comparison of EB-1A and EB-2 NIW

Traditionally, the EB-1A category carried a reputation for being more selective. It requires clear evidence of extraordinary ability, often interpreted as national or international acclaim—awards, media coverage, top-tier publications, and more.

By contrast, EB-2 NIW applications, though still rigorous, offered a broader set of criteria and more flexibility. The fact that EB-2 denials are now outpacing EB-1A marks a notable turning point.

Source: USCIS I-140 RADP Summary Tables (2022–2025 Q1)

What began as a gradual convergence of denial rates over the last few years has now flipped into a full reversal—NIW petitions are being denied more frequently than EB-1A.

What’s driving the higher EB-2 NIW denial rate?

Immigration attorneys and policy analysts cite a number of factors influencing approval and denial rates:

• Heightened scrutiny on the “national interest” standard: Since mid-2022, adjudicators have required more rigorous documentation demonstrating how the petitioner’s work substantially benefits the U.S. public.
• Increased demand and backlog management: The popularity of the NIW category among STEM professionals, especially during the pandemic and remote work boom, may have triggered a policy recalibration to manage volume.
• Consistency with Dhanasar Framework: Following the Matter of Dhanasar decision, USCIS has sought to enforce a three-pronged test more strictly. Evidence must now show national importance, the applicant’s position to advance the endeavor, and a benefit to the U.S. that outweighs the need for labor certification.

Implications for applicants

If you’re considering EB-2 NIW:

• Do not treat it as “easier.” Given the higher denial rates, scrutiny may now be equal to, if not higher than, that for EB-1A visas.
• Invest in your evidence. Provide specific, quantifiable outcomes of your work (e.g., patents with broadscale application, policy impact, open-source projects with measurable adoption).
• Link your work to national interest clearly. Avoid generic claims. Show exactly who benefits, how, and why it matters on a national scale.

If you’re considering EB-1A:

• Re-evaluate eligibility. Many applicants overlook their own track records. If you’ve led major projects, published influential work, or won peer-reviewed awards, you may qualify.
• Build a portfolio. Think of your case like an investment pitch—organize your achievements to clearly address the 10 USCIS criteria.
• Consider timing. Processing times and retrogression trends vary between the EB-1 and EB-2 categories. Your priority date and country of chargeability may impact which is more efficient.
  

What’s next? Looking ahead to FY 2025

While it’s too early to say whether this trend will persist all year, Q1 data often alludes to how USCIS plans to adjudicate cases in the months ahead.

If the higher EB-2 NIW denial rate continues into Q2 and Q3, it may reshape how attorneys and applicants approach self-petition Green Card strategies—possibly reversing the last decade’s shift toward NIW-first filings.

How Manifest Law can help

If you’re trying to decide between applying for an EB-1A or EB-2 NIW, Manifest Law is here to guide you through it. We help professionals, founders, and researchers turn their work and achievements into strong, well-organized petitions that meet today’s stricter USCIS standards. From figuring out the best path to gathering the right evidence and telling your story clearly, we’re with you at every step.

Request a free consultation with Manifest Law today.