EB-2 NIW Approval Rates May Be On the Rise: March 2026 Lawfully Data
- Lawfully’s user data shows hundreds real-time case outcomes for EB-2 NIW applicants, providing some insight into how USCIS is currently adjudicating these petitions.
- Lawfully’s data shows EB-2 NIW approval rates appear to be recovering after reaching a low in September.
- In 2026, strong NIW petitions must answer why your work can’t wait two to three years for a PERM to be approved, why it requires your physical presence in the U.S., and why your approval is urgent.
New data from the case tracking platform Lawfully shows that EB-2 NIW (national interest waiver) approval rates may be stabilizing in March 2026, continuing a gradual climb from last year’s lows.
Lawfully is a platform that allows users to track their cases, which means they’re able to track outcomes in real-time. While their sample size is smaller than the total number of cases adjudicated each month, it can provide helpful insight on how adjudications are trending for this competitive visa category.
| About this report: Manifest Law’s attorneys reviewed data from Lawfully, an app that allows users to track their visa cases after they’re submitted to USCIS. This report focuses on March 2026 outcome data for I-140 filings in the EB-2 NIW category. Note that Lawfully’s data set skews toward cases filed through regular processing. The March 2026 sample covers 338 EB-2 NIW approvals and denials. In Q4 FY 2025, USCIS data reported 13,983 NIW receipts. So we treat Lawfully’s data as a directional signal, not a substitute for official data. |
Lawfully’s EB-2 NIW approval rates show signs of stability
USCIS data for FY 2025 shows NIW approvals declined to 35.7% in Q4.
| Quarter | Period | Approval rate |
| Q1 FY 2025 | Oct–Dec 2024 | 62.7% |
| Q2 FY 2025 | Jan–Mar 2025 | 67.3% |
| Q3 FY 2025 | Apr–Jun 2025 | 54.0% |
| Q4 FY 2025 | Jul–Sep 2025 | 35.7% |
Lawfully’s data points to a recovery since then. The regular processing approval rate reached 44% in March 2026, the highest point since April 2025 and up from a low of 26% in September 2025.
Based on data from Lawfully. These findings reflect 2,155 approvals and 2,877 denials tracked petitions via Lawfully from March 2025 to March 2026. Because it is of limited scope, it should not be viewed as a definitive or fully representative measure of current USCIS adjudication outcomes.
In addition, the RFE rate for regularly processed NIW petitions was 39% in March, down from a high of 50% in January.
Based on data from Lawfully. These findings reflect 3,388 RFEs tracked via Lawfully from March 2025 to March 2026. Because it is of limited scope, it should not be viewed as a definitive or fully representative measure of current USCIS adjudication outcomes
What this means for your NIW petition in 2026
The data tells you where things stand overall, but a strong petition is still important.
For NIW petitions, Urizar said the third prong—the argument for waiving the PERM labor certification requirement—is the most overlooked. The petition should answer why your work can’t wait two to three years for a PERM to be approved, why it requires your physical presence in the U.S., and why your approval is urgent.
“Emphasize why you can’t do your work remotely, and why they can’t just hire someone fresh out of school and train them for six months,” Urizar said.
You can also use publicly available sources to prove your endeavor is in the national interest. Urizar cites White House executive orders or statements to show what the administration is prioritizing.
For example, for a client working in AI and data infrastructure, she can point to President Trump’s executive order pushing the U.S. to “act decisively to retain global leadership in artificial intelligence.”
How to use this data moving forward
Lawfully’s March data is a timely signal on adjudication trends, alongside the broader USCIS dataset. But monthly approval rates can shift for reasons that don’t reflect the strength of an individual petition. So focus on the preparation, documentation, and quality of your evidence—the things you can control—rather than the approval rate in a given month.
Planning your next steps
If you have questions about this data and want to explore your visa or Green Card options, request a consultation with Manifest Law’s attorneys to discuss your goals. For more context, you can view the official USCIS data here and our previous monthly reports on EB-1A and EB-2 NIW trends.
