USCIS Q3 Data: EB-1A and NIW Approvals Decline, O-1 Stays Strong

Each quarter, USCIS releases statistics on approvals, denials, and filings for every visa category. For FY2025 Q3, trends diverged sharply across employment-based routes. The O-1 visa held firm at a 93.8% approval rate, barely changing from Q2. Meanwhile, EB-1A approvals fell to 66.6% (down 8.4% quarter-to-quarter), while EB-2 NIW dropped to 54.0%, its lowest point in recent years. 

Here’s what the newest USCIS data shows: 

View all of the new USCIS data here. Want to look back at the latest approval rate trends? Read our analysis of the USCIS data from FY2025 Q2 here. 

New O-1 Visa Approval Data: Stability Despite Rising Demand

O-1 visa approvals continue to hold near 94%, showing resilience even as case volume climbs. In June of 2025, monthly filings surpassed 3,000 for the first time in over a year, reflecting ongoing demand from high-skilled professionals shifting away from H-1B and backlogged green card categories.

RFE rates have also declined for the fifth consecutive year—just 18.7% of O-1 cases received a Request for Evidence in FY2025 to date, down from 30% in 2020. This stability underscores the O-1’s consistency even as approval rates decline in other visa categories.

USCIS data continues to show that the O-1 visa remains one of the most predictable employment-based immigration routes, even as processing times begin to lengthen. If you’re qualified, now is the time to start your application, before adjudication trends shift. 

New EB-1A Data: Approval Rates Decline, Demand Remains Steady

New USCIS data shows that EB-1A demand remains strong, but approvals fell to 66.6% in Q3 FY2025. The decline doesn’t appear to stem from an increase in new filings, which have held steady at around 7,000 per month throughout 2025.

Manifest Law attorney and former USCIS officer Evan Law says the dip in approvals may point to stricter adjudication trends rather than a formal policy shift.

“In our work with clients, we’re seeing that officers are applying closer scrutiny under the ‘final merits’ review,” Law explains. “This is the most subjective aspect of this case type, so officers may feel more confident that their denial in the ‘final merits’ analysis will not be overturned on appeal.” 

Overall, the approval rate for the EB-1 visa is 79.7% in Q3 FY025, inclusive of its three subcategories (EB-1A, EB-1B, and EB-1C).

A potential trend towards tougher EB-1A adjudications 

Law continues, “The criteria that are required to warrant a final merits determination go toward establishing acclaim. Yet, instead of taking a broad view of the totality of the evidence as to whether the client has risen to the top of the field with sustained acclaim, officers are isolating and minimizing certain aspects of the evidence presented to diminish the client’s accomplishments.  This may be one shift in emphasis that is leading to noticeably tougher EB-1A adjudications.”

Law adds that while the final merits aspect has received increased scrutiny, there’s been no new policy memo or official change in how EB-1A cases are supposed to be decided.

“Part of this may be newer officers still learning how to apply the final merits framework, and part of it may reflect a broader pattern of closer review that attorneys are observing across multiple visa categories,” Law says. “Q4 data will tell us how much of this is a short-term adjustment versus a lasting shift.”

On top of declining approval rates, pending EB-1A cases have surged nearly 70% year over year, meaning petitions are accumulating faster than they’re being decided. And while RFE and NOID data for employment-based green card categories aren’t publicly available, immigration lawyers say both appear to be increasing in practice. 

Manifest Law’s immigration attorneys continue to watch adjudication patterns closely as USCIS balances high demand with careful review for the EB-1A category. 

New EB-2 NIW Data: Rising Denial Rates and Cooling Demand

The EB-2 NIW category saw the steepest drop in Q3, with approval rates plunging nearly 20% from Q2 to Q3. The approval rate for EB-2 NIWs now sits at 54%. In Q3, new filings also fell about 28% from Q1, suggesting that fewer applicants are pursuing the NIW as wait times grow and review standards evolve.

Manifest Law Senior Counsel Henry Lindpere says the shift may stem from how USCIS is now interpreting “national interest,” particularly in STEM and entrepreneurship cases.

“The biggest driver behind the drop in NIW approvals may be a recalibration of what USCIS considers to be in the ‘national interest,’” Lindpere says. “Officers appear to be placing greater emphasis on measurable U.S. impact and less on forward-looking potential or sector-wide influence. It’s not that the standard has changed on paper; it’s that its application may have become narrower in practice.”

Ultimately, EB-2 NIW remains viable but selective. Applicants who can demonstrate a clear, measurable national impact, and have patience for longer timelines, will be best positioned.

What the Q3 USCIS Data Means for Applicants

Taken together, the Q3 numbers show a system moving in two directions at once. The O-1 remains a steady, reliable option, even as filings surge, while EB-1A and NIW approvals are clearly tightening under heavier scrutiny. 

For applicants, that doesn’t mean opportunity is shrinking, but it does mean preparation matters more than ever. Strong cases now hinge less on document volume and more on how well your story is told and how your evidence is presented. 

If you’re ready to start building a strong O-1, EB-1A, or EB-2 NIW case and move forward with your future in the U.S., Manifest Law can help. Request a consultation with our experienced immigration attorneys today.