EB-2 NIW Approval Rate and Historical Trends: Why Now Is the Time to File
- EB-2 NIW approval rates stabilized in early 2025 but fell by the end of FY 2025.
- Strong cases still have good chances despite tighter scrutiny and backlog.
- Filing now locks in your priority date amid growing visa retrogression.
- Tailored evidence aligned with USCIS’s Dhanasar criteria is crucial for success.
In Fiscal Year 2025, USCIS approved nearly 20,000 EB-2 NIW petitions, with an approval rate of 55.2%. That is a big drop from the very high approval rates seen a few years ago, when the category was being interpreted more broadly. Today, USCIS is taking a harder look at national interest cases.
That does not mean the EB-2 NIW is out of reach for qualified applicants. But it does mean you need a stronger case than ever. Since this category lets you skip the usual labor certification process, you have to clearly show that your work has real value to the U.S. and that you are well-positioned to keep making that impact.
What is the EB-2 NIW approval rate in 2026?
The latest data from USCIS shows that the EB-2 NIW approval rate for Fiscal Year 2025 (October 2024-October 2025) was 55.2%, a significant drop from the 71% recorded in FY 2024.
The sharpest decline came in Q4 2025 (July through September), when the approval rate fell to just 35.7%. USCIS adjudicated 8,324 EB-2 NIW petitions in Q4, approving only 2,968 and denying 5,356, meaning more petitions were denied than approved for the first time in recent memory.
| Quarter | Approval Rate | Denial Rate | Petitions Adjudicated | Approved | Denied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 Q1 | ~62.8% | 37.2% | 7,473 | 4,683 | 2,790 |
| FY2025 Q2 | ~67.3% | 32.7% | 9,797 | 6,591 | 3,206 |
| FY2025 Q3 | ~54.0% | 46.0% | 9,801 | 5,290 | 4,511 |
| FY2025 Q4 | ~35.7% | 64.3% | 8,324 | 2,968 | 5,356 |
| FY2025 Full Year | ~55.2% | 44.8% | 35,395 | 19,532 | 15,863 |
This continues a steep downward trend from the 95.7% approval rate seen in FY 2022. The influx of applications following the broader Dhanasar interpretation, combined with tightening USCIS adjudication standards, has pushed approval rates down each year.
Lawfully data may show that EB-2 NIW approval rates are increasing in 2026
That said, new data from the case tracking platform Lawfully suggests that EB-2 NIW (national interest waiver) approval rates may be stabilizing in March 2026, continuing a gradual climb from last year’s lows. Lawfully tracks hundreds of EB-2 NIW petitions in real-time each month, and their latest data shows a 44% approval rate for regularly processed EB-2 NIW I-140 petitions.
Based on data from Lawfully. These findings reflect 2,155 approvals and 2,877 denials tracked petitions via Lawfully from March 2025 to March 2026. Because it is of limited scope, it should not be viewed as a definitive or fully representative measure of current USCIS adjudication outcomes.
Why have EB-2 NIW approval rates declined?
Just a few years ago, in 2022, the approval rate for the EB-2 visa category was around 95%. But that was an unusual moment in history, due largely to an executive order from then-President Biden in January of 2022.
After Biden issued Executive Order 14012, Restoring Faith in Our Legal Immigration Systems and Strengthening Integration and Inclusion Efforts for New Americans, USCIS released updated guidance on the interpretation of national interest waivers.
That guidance interpreted “national interest” broadly and included advanced degree graduates, particularly those in STEM fields, and entrepreneurs. Consequently, more professionals of exceptional ability in research, innovation, or public health qualified for the EB-2 NIW visa, and approval rates soared throughout 2022.
Because the EB-2 NIW is one of the few employment-based visas that allows self-petition without an employer sponsor, it offers an appealing pathway for qualified professionals whose work benefits the U.S., though meeting the requirements can still be challenging.
EB-2 NIW Approval Rates: Historical Trends
With that broader interpretation from 2022 came a surge of applications, including many low-quality or poorly prepared petitions. Approval rate statistics count all adjudicated applications, so the influx of weak cases dragged down those approval numbers.
In 2023, USCIS tightened adjudication. Approval rates slid from roughly 95% to about 62%. The agency received more applications and also had a larger backlog of petitions to review. While backlogs don’t affect the approval rates, they can increase processing times.
In 2024, USCIS began applying the Dhanasar standard more strictly, requiring measurable impact, concrete evidence, and a clear U.S.-oriented benefit. This standard came about in 2016 as the result of a man who appealed his EB-2 NIW application denial. USCIS decided the previous standards were too strict and created a three-prong standard that became known by the petitioner’s name, Dhanasar.
The three-prongs of the Dhanasar standard require that an applicant show:
- Proposed work has substantial merit, is of national importance, and has a measurable impact.
- Applicant is well-positioned to advance the proposed work.
- The proposed work is beneficial to the U.S., so the evidence needs to be U.S.-oriented.
Let’s take a look at how these changing interpretations by USCIS have affected EB-2 category approval and denial rates over the past few years.
| Fiscal Year | EB-2 NIW Applications Received | Approved | Denied | Approval Rate | Denial Rate |
| FY2022 | 21,973 | 10,316 | 468 | 95.7% | 4.3% |
| FY2023 | 39,803 | 31,889 | 8,172 | 79.6% | 20.4% |
| FY2024 | 63,549 | 27,526 | 11,256 | 71% | 29% |
| FY2025 | 66,276 | 19,532 | 15,863 | 55.2% | 44.8% |
What Are the Chances of EB-2 NIW Approval in 2026?
The takeaway right now is that if you have a strong case, your odds of getting an EB-2 NIW approval are still good. Approval rates in this category are better than in several other Green Card categories.
Qualified applicants are still winning approvals at a consistent rate in the first half of 2025, but that could change as policies change.
Take our visa eligibility quiz to find out where you stand and what to do next.
How to Strengthen Your NIW Case Right Now
If you’re going to file for an EB-2 NIW visa in this window of opportunity while approval rates are steady, you need a petition that leaves no doubt about your eligibility and exceptional ability.
Here is what you’ll need.
- Show that you master all three prongs of the Dhanasar standard:
- Your work has substantial merit and national importance. Show why your work matters to the U.S. economy, culture, or well-being.
- You are well-positioned to advance the work. Demonstrate your skills, track record, and ability to deliver results.
- Your work benefits the U.S. enough to waive the labor certification. Explain why your contribution can’t wait for a U.S. worker search.
- Make sure your EB-2 NIW application includes:
- Tailored letters of recommendation from leaders in your field
- Evidence of impact, such as implementation, citations, media, real-world use, patents, contracts, or deployments.
- Clear alignment with U.S. interests (health, security, AI)
- Be sure to avoid:
- Generic or template letters
- Over-reliance on degrees or credentials
- Old or vague accomplishments that don’t have measurable outcomes
| 🧑💼 Curious how others in your field made it work? Manifest Law’s experienced attorneys have helped thousands of immigrants secure their future in the U.S. Explore our visa approval notices and read EB-2 NIW success stories to learn how we helped entrepreneurs, researchers, and STEM field professionals like you turn their stories into winning petitions. |
Remember: This Window of Opportunity Is Open, But It May Not Stay That Way
The latest data from USCIS covers January-March of 2025, and that period showed relatively stable approval rates in the EB-2 NIW category, but there is no guarantee this will remain the case in Q3 or Q4 of this fiscal year. Visa numbers reset on October 1st, when the government’s fiscal year begins.
Future administrative memos of policy shifts could further narrow how USCIS adjudicates applications, so if your case is strong today, it’s strategic to file now rather than waiting.
How Manifest Law Can Help
At Manifest Law, our immigration attorneys specialize in EB-2 NIW and EB-1A cases, particularly for STEM fields, innovation, and public benefit pathways. We closely follow all the trends from USCIS data, so we can provide legal advice to position your EB-2 category application to meet the latest standards.
Request a consultation today to review your case and file while conditions are favorable.
Manifest’s expertise in immigration drives 90%+ approval rates and services that will make your immigration journey seamless and stress-free: risk-free filing with 100% money-back guarantee plan; personalized case support with profile building and former USCIS experts review; and live case tracking.
