EB-2 NIW Approval Rate and Historical Trends: Why Now Is the Time to File

In the first quarter of Fiscal Year 2026, the EB-2 NIW showed an approval rate of 42.6%. This is an increase from the previous quarter, which saw a low of 35.7%.

Today, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) adjudicates national interest cases with more scrutiny. However, the current approval rates do not suggest that the EB-2 NIW has become unattainable. Instead, you have to clearly show that your work has real value to the U.S. and that you are well-positioned to keep making that impact.

What is the EB-2 NIW approval rate in 2026?

The latest data from USCIS shows that the EB-2 NIW approval rate for the first quarter of Fiscal Year 2026 (October 2025 to December 2025) was 42.6%.

This marks an increase from Q4 2025 (July through September), when the approval rate fell to just 35.7%. USCIS adjudicated 5,586 EB-2 NIW petitions in Q1, approving 2,380 and denying 3,206. This is the second quarter in a row where more petitions were denied than approved.

Source: USCIS Immigration and Citizenship Data

This continues a steep downward trend from the 95.7% approval rate seen in FY 2022. The influx of applications following the broader Dhanasar interpretation, combined with tightening USCIS adjudication standards, has pushed approval rates down each year.

Why have EB-2 NIW approval rates declined?

Just a few years ago, in 2022, the approval rate for the EB-2 visa category was around 95%. But that was an unusual moment in history, due largely to an executive order from then-President Biden in January 2022.

After Biden issued Executive Order 14012, Restoring Faith in Our Legal Immigration Systems and Strengthening Integration and Inclusion Efforts for New Americans, USCIS released updated guidance on the interpretation of national interest waivers.

That guidance interpreted “national interest” broadly and included advanced degree graduates, particularly those in STEM fields, and entrepreneurs. Consequently, more professionals of exceptional ability in research, innovation, or public health qualified for the EB-2 NIW visa, and approval rates soared throughout 2022.

Because the EB-2 NIW is one of the few employment-based visas that allows self-petition without an employer sponsor, it offers an appealing pathway for qualified professionals whose work benefits the U.S., though meeting the requirements can still be challenging.

How have the EB-2 NIW approval rates changed over time? Historical trends

With that broader interpretation from 2022 came a surge of applications, including many low-quality or poorly prepared petitions. Approval rate statistics count all adjudicated applications, so the influx of weak cases dragged down those approval numbers.

In 2023, USCIS tightened adjudication. Approval rates slid from roughly 95% to about 62%. The agency received more applications and also had a larger backlog of petitions to review. While backlogs don’t affect the approval rates, they can increase processing times.

In 2024, USCIS began applying the Dhanasar standard more strictly, requiring measurable impact, concrete evidence, and a clear U.S.-oriented benefit. This standard came about in 2016 as the result of a man who appealed his EB-2 NIW application denial. USCIS decided the previous standards were too strict and created a three-prong standard that became known by the petitioner’s name, Dhanasar.

The three-prongs of the Dhanasar standard require that an applicant show:

1. Proposed work has substantial merit, is of national importance, and has a measurable impact.
2. Applicant is well-positioned to advance the proposed work.
3. It must benefit the U.S. to waive the normal job offer and labor certification requirements, meaning the national interest in your work outweighs the protections those requirements provide to U.S. workers.

Let’s take a look at how these changing interpretations by USCIS have affected EB-2 category approval and denial rates over the past few years.

Note: Approval rates are calculated by taking the number of approvals, and dividing them by the number of adjudicated cases (approvals plus denials).

What are the chances of an EB-2 NIW approval in 2026?

If you have a strong case, your odds of getting an EB-2 NIW approval are still good. Manifest immigration attorney Ana Gabriela Urizar says approval rates are not indicative of an individual’s case outcome.

“I encourage eligible professionals not to be discouraged by overall approval statistics. Approval rates reflect the entire pool of applicants, including many cases that were filed prematurely or without sufficient evidence,” she says. “What matters most is whether you can clearly demonstrate that your work has substantial merit and national importance, and that you are well-positioned to advance your proposed endeavor. In today’s environment, a well-prepared NIW petition with a strong legal strategy and compelling evidence can still be highly competitive, even as adjudications become more scrutinized.”

How can I strengthen my EB-2 NIW case right now?

If you’re going to file for an EB-2 NIW Green Card, you need a petition that leaves no doubt about your eligibility and exceptional ability, regardless of the current approval rates.

Show that you master all three prongs of the Dhanasar standard:

• Your work has substantial merit and national importance. Show why your work matters to the U.S. economy, culture, or well-being.
• You are well-positioned to advance the work. Demonstrate your skills, track record, and ability to deliver results.
• Your work benefits the U.S. enough to waive the labor certification. Explain why your contribution can’t wait for a U.S. worker search.

Make sure your EB-2 NIW application includes:

• Tailored letters of recommendation from leaders in your field
• Evidence of impact, such as implementation, citations, media, real-world use, patents, contracts, or deployments.
• Clear alignment with U.S. interests (health, security, AI)

Be sure to avoid

• Generic or template letters
• Over-reliance on degrees or credentials
• Old or vague accomplishments that don’t have measurable outcomes

How can Manifest Law help with my EB-2 NIW case?

At Manifest Law, our immigration attorneys specialize in EB-2 NIW and EB-1A cases, particularly for STEM fields, innovation, and public benefit pathways. We closely follow all the trends from USCIS data, so we can provide legal advice to position your EB-2 category application to meet the latest standards.

Request a consultation to review your case with an immigration attorney today.

FAQs about EB-2 NIW approval rates

What is the EB-2 NIW approval rate right now?

For the first quarter of Fiscal Year 2026 (October 2025 to December 2025), USCIS approved 42.6% of adjudicated EB-2 NIW petitions. This is up from a low of 35.7% the prior quarter, but still below the 95.7% rate seen in 2022.

The number moves quarter to quarter, so treat it as a snapshot, not a forecast for your case.

Is the approval rate the same as my chances of approval?

No. The published rate blends every petition USCIS reviews, including weak and incomplete ones. A well-documented case that clearly meets the Dhanasar standard is evaluated on its own merits, not against the average.

Why do EB-2 NIW petitions get denied?

The most common reasons for an EB-2 NIW denial are failing to show the work has national importance (not just local or personal value), weak evidence that you’re well-positioned to carry the work forward, generic recommendation letters that don’t address the Dhanasar prongs, and leaning on degrees or titles instead of measurable impact.

What does it mean if I get a Request for Evidence (RFE)?

An RFE means that an immigration officer wants more proof or clarification on a specific point in your EB-2 NIW petition. It is not a denial, and a thorough, well-evidenced response can lead to a favorable decision.

Do I need a lawyer to file an EB-2 NIW?

No, but many applicants choose to work with an immigration attorney for several reasons. Because the EB-2 NIW requires you to argue national interest against the Dhanasar standard, presentation and evidence strategy matter enormously. The right legal counsel can help frame your proposed endeavor with USCIS’s guidelines in mind.

Can I refile if my EB-2 NIW is denied?

Yes, as there’s no limit on refiling. However, in your next NIW petition, you should review and fix the specific gaps USCIS identified, and strengthen your application before resubmitting.

A denied petition also does not preserve your priority date, so a new filing starts a new place in line.

Which fields have the best EB-2 NIW odds?

Any field can qualify for the EB-2 NIW, as long as the application can tie the proposal to recent U.S. national interests. In practice, applicants in STEM, medicine, and engineering often have an easier time assembling supporting evidence, but strong NIW cases have been approved across a wide range of fields.

Does where I’m from affect my chances of an EB-2 NIW approval?

Country of birth doesn’t change how USCIS adjudicates the petition itself, but it does affect your wait after approval. Applicants from backlogged countries like India and China can wait years for a current priority date, which is why filing sooner to lock in your date matters.